69-80 WEB Features Chien Hadi.indd

by sTeven chien, Keir oPie and Kaan ozbay inTroducTion Disaster response in areas of high population density is centered on evacuating people quickly and efficiently. Because the state of New Jersey, USA, is densely populated it faces considerable challenges in effectively coordinating responses to emergencies, such as serious storm events, particularly nor’easters. New Jersey experiences on average three nor’easters per year, any of which can strike at Class 2 or higher on the Dolan-Davis scale. In a previous study (1992) conducted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in conjunction with the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Weather Service (NWS), the extent and severity of potential flooding, vulnerable population, public shelter locations and evacuation times were determined, and a traffic assignment model was developed to estimate evacuation times during a nor’easter.6 While the model considered the effect of different population scenarios and included roadway link volumes under the various scenarios, it did not consider the impact of implementing selected evacuation strategies or plans. The objective of this study was to develop a microscopic traffic simulation model to assess the effectiveness of the existing New Jersey State Police (NJSP) “Routes 47/347 Reverse Lane Plan” for Cape May County. Lane reversal, also known as contraflow strategy, was modeled to study the enhancement of roadway capacity during a hurricane event. The simulation conducted in this study was applied to estimate evacuation times under various conditions, including different levels of traffic operations, seasonal area population, hurricane intensities and behavior responses. This study showcases the application of microscopic traffic simulation for emergency-preparedness planning. Moreover, the findings of this study can provide guidance to transportation officials and public safety agencies toward implementing effective traffic management strategies during a hurricane.